Extractive Resources Supply and Demand Study

Making sure Victoria has enough quarry materials for future construction demands

Extractive resources supply and demand studies are critical for determining whether there will be enough raw materials available to meet the forecast demand stemming from Victoria’s long term population growth and infrastructure program.

The findings of these studies provide the evidence to support measures aimed at ensuring the supply of materials meets forecast demand where it is needed in the short to long term. This includes the roll-out of Strategic Extractive Resource Areas (SERAs), which secure key resources, and the establishment of the Resources Victoria Approvals Coordination who works with industry and coregulators to help unlock much needed resources for Victoria’s growth.

Resources Victoria has undertaken a short to medium term supply and demand analysis of extractive resources from 2022 to 2030.

This report supersedes the Extractive Resources in Victoria: Demand and Supply Study 2015-50 prepared for the Department by PwC in 2016.

Extractive Resources Supply and Demand Study 2022-2030 (2023)

Key findings from the study show that:

The forecast demand for extractive resources in 2030 is 79.5 million tonnes, up from 63.7 million in 2020-2021.
Demand for hard rock will increase on average by 2.7 per cent per year from now until 2029-30; demand for sand and gravel is expected to grow 3.9 per cent per year until 2030.
The demand forecasts indicate that Greater Melbourne will account for around 80 per cent of total extractive resource demand from 2021-22 to 2029-30.
Outer urban growth areas, including Greater Geelong, Wyndham, Hume, Whittlesea and Casey, are expected to be major consumers of extractive materials due to increased construction driven by population growth.
By 2029-30, the current supply of approved reserves close to Melbourne will diminish considerably as some current quarries’ reserves become depleted.
Without any additional approved supplies coming online, extractive materials will need to be transported from further afield, increasing the cost of construction materials and increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
- Sand and gravel to Melbourne could increase from 32 km to 151 km
- Hard rock to Melbourne could increase from 62 km to 183 km.

The study is a point-in-time analysis using best information available at the time. Feedback from industry since the industry surveys and modelling were undertaken indicates that demand is likely to have risen above the study’s forecast levels of demand.

Extractive resources supply and demand studies are a key deliverable of the Helping Victoria Grow - Extractive Resources Strategy. These studies will be updated from time to time to inform actions to secure the extractive resources Victoria needs to grow.

Any questions may be directed to Richard Hancock, Manager, Strategic Resource Planning, Resources Victoria by email: richard.hancock@deeca.vic.gov.au.

Documents

Extractives Resources Supply and Demand Report 2022-30 (PDF, 4.3 MB)

Extractives Resources Supply and Demand Report 2022-30 (WORD, 7.9 MB)

Extractive Resources in Victoria: Demand and Supply Study 2015-2050 (2016)

The study, Extractive Resources in Victoria, Demand and Supply Study 2015 – 2050, forecasts demand and supply of extractive resources statewide to 2050, by resource type and by each of Victoria's 79 local government areas.

Industry was directly engaged during the study to estimate current and future supplies of extractive resources. This data was provided by more than 220 quarry Work Authority holders about their existing and future intended operations. Confidentiality of individual operator data has been ensured through aggregation of supplier data in the report.

Prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers and Ernst and Young, the study informs a broader approach being developed by DJPR to support delivery of public infrastructure, affordable housing and private sector construction, generate jobs and provide for greater certainty and confidence in the sector for industry and communities.